In October last year, the national standard of "four-wheel low-speed electric vehicle technical conditions" was officially established. One of the related policy guidelines was that the power system was upgraded from lead-acid battery to lithium battery. This orientation has caused great repercussions in the industry. So, what opportunities and challenges will the lithium-ion process of low-speed electric vehicles bring? Will lithium battery upgrades give low-speed electric vehicle companies a chance to sublimate? This issue is worth exploring.First, low-speed electric vehicles switch to lithium battery related needs
Low-speed electric vehicles can achieve such a large application, there are many reasons, from the overall point of view, the price is limited to the range of 20,000 to 30,000 or even lower, this price range plus local loose use restrictions, is low-speed electric The car is currently developing a rapid combustion improver. If you discuss and compare the requirements of keeping the price range unchanged, you can get an overview of the demand for low-speed electric vehicles for battery systems:
Hard demand: the total cost of lithium batteries needs to be comparable to existing costs
The performance of the entire system of lithium batteries needs to be compatible with the current system.
The supply mode of the lithium battery system needs to be similar to the current mode.
From the system structure of low-speed electric vehicles, it is very important that each component form a stable and relatively simple architecture, as shown in Figure 1, if along the following architecture:
The supplier of the low-speed car core has already completed the prototype and cost control of the entire system, and then left it to the manufacturer for assembly and construction.
According to the existing system, the assembly and arrangement of the lithium battery system is relatively simple, and the manufacturer is more likely to put the battery in according to the position that can be arranged, and the available positions are nothing more than the following three:
1. Front compartment: The front compartment is equipped with a power battery to pay more attention to the structural abuse of the battery (structure intrusion and loss, crushing and acupuncture) caused by bicycle collision and collision with other vehicles;
2. Under the seat: The power battery placed under the seat has a more severe flame retardant and time lag requirement for the battery to ignite after the fire;
3. The rear compartment is equipped with a power battery.
The rapid development of low-speed electric vehicles is directly related to the simpleness of the entire system and the ready-made core parts system. It can be seen that the parts manufacturer's solution dominates in terms of control and characteristics.
Second, the safety of lithium batteries
Looking at the problem from the worst situation, according to the "New Energy Vehicle Fire Fighting and Rescue Regulations" issued by the Ministry of Public Security, due to some characteristics of lithium batteries, road firefighting and rescue have also emerged with new features.
If the low-speed electric vehicle cuts into the lithium battery system at once, we must consider the following questions:
1. Does the frequency of accidents increase compared to existing new energy vehicles? This comparison is mainly based on several comparisons: the number base of low-speed electric steam itself, strict cost constraints, and time issues for new introductions;
2. Will the existing market demand, the time required for the entire compliance process, and the short time for subsequent take-ups increase the risk? New energy vehicles have experienced many accidents during the development process. The automobile enterprises have matured in the trial and error of accidents and the improvement of problems. They also have relatively long time to implement development and system safety verification. And the high market demand for low-speed electric vehicles will make the improvement process of related companies much shorter;
3. The market for low-speed electric vehicles has the characteristics of private market dispersion. If the first two items are not in place, it may cause a second accident after spontaneous combustion of low-speed electric vehicles, and the house or other parked vehicles.
Here is the reason why lithium batteries should be used. There is no debate here. The general direction of industrial guidance policies and future development is already set. We will move forward according to this big framework. It can be expected that the requirements for performance and working conditions of new energy vehicles will be downgraded and reduced. However, the formulation of national standards for new energy vehicle safety will be incorporated into the core requirements for the safety of low-speed electric vehicles, and each item may be adjusted. Many projects may change or be traded. This is the trend of the times.
Third, opportunities and forecasts
1. Due to the safety control possibility of the above analysis, real-time monitoring of low-speed electric vehicles may be more complete than that of new energy vehicles; local monitoring platforms will become the main platform for low-speed electric vehicle safety monitoring.
2. Ferro-lithium batteries are mainly used in commercial vehicles and some special-purpose vehicles. As the commercial vehicle market gradually becomes saturated in the next few years and the logistics vehicle market pursues higher specific energy and energy density indicators, the sales of iron-lithium batteries will It is difficult to achieve double speed growth. Under this trend, the lithium iron phosphate battery enterprises that need to pass the national standard and the subsidized energy density in the field of batteries and modules will shift their focus to the low-speed electric vehicle market may be a high probability event. In the future, as the competitive landscape becomes clear, there will be iron-lithium battery companies that focus on low-speed electric vehicles. However, the regional development pattern of low-speed electric vehicles may lead to the emergence of local protectionism.
3. Lithium-ionization of low-speed electric vehicles is carried out under the low-cost conditions of the battery system, and safety is an unavoidable factor. To achieve cost control and safety protection, power battery companies must first pull up the production capacity, and then use the Class B batteries after the performance parameters are grouped in the lithium battery system for low-speed electric vehicles, so as to obtain the price of the power.
4. In the process of lithium-ionization of low-speed electric vehicles, lithium battery companies and low-speed electric vehicle enterprises are more likely to have new types of partnerships, and it is more likely to have cases of alliances and acquisitions. The variables appearing in this field are particularly large.